by Paul Krugman krugman.blogs.nytimes.com 12/7/2015
July 12, 2015 4:38 pm 134 Comments
Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.
Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag "ThisIsACoup" is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.
Can anything pull Europe back from the brink? Word is that Mario Draghi is trying to reintroduce some sanity, that Hollande is finally showing a bit of the pushback against German morality-play economics that he so signally failed to supply in the past. But much of the damage has already been done. Who will ever trust Germany’s good intentions after this?
In a way, the economics have almost become secondary. But still, let’s be clear: what we’ve learned these past couple of weeks is that being a member of the eurozone means that the creditors can destroy your economy if you step out of line. This has no bearing at all on the underlying economics of austerity. It’s as true as ever that imposing harsh austerity without debt relief is a doomed policy no matter how willing the country is to accept suffering. And this in turn means that even a complete Greek capitulation would be a dead end.
Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)
The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it.
Proposals of the Euro Group: The catalog of atrocities
The Euro Group has written down what the Greeks have to do so that negotiations on a third program to be recorded. The demands go much further than anything previously an option. Premier Tsipras likely find it difficult to enforce the conditions in his Parliament.
A decision there in Brussels not yet - but for a position paper of the Euro Finance. \
It reads like a deliberate humiliation of Greece.
From Nicolai Kwasniewski, Brussels www.spiegel.de/ Sunday, 12/07/2015 - 20:38 clock
14 hours has discussed the Euro Group: What conditions must meet the Greek government to ensure that negotiations on a third aid program of 85 billion euros will be added? On the four sides the Euro Finance Ministers formulated their demands - the paper reads, as if to prevent an agreement at any price.
The paper is divided into three parts:
First measures are listed that must get passed already to next Wednesday in parliament, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, in order to restore confidence.
Second, it follows a series of demands, which must meet the Greek government before any negotiations on the applied to the euro rescue fund ESM billion program can be recorded.
In the third part of the Euro Finance lists the financial requirements on Greece for those three years, the program lasts. They also answer the question of how to deal with the debt of the country.
Basic requirement, it says right at the beginning, was the restoration of confidence in the Greek government. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should definitely stay at an ESM program on board. The first measures should therefore be already cast to 15 July in the form of laws.
These include the controversial reform of value added tax and the pension system . Furthermore, the judicial system must be reformed, the Greek statistics office Elstat completely independent and "relevant provisions" of the Stability and Growth Pact will be implemented the European Economic and Monetary Union. The European Banking Directive BRRD to adopt the Greek Parliament immediately.
These are the measures that the Greek Parliament of the Euro Group to view until July 15, has to adopt - mind you: once only to produce lost confidence again.
The Greek Government shall then also address the following points until July 20 before negotiations start: Because the economy has slumped again in recent weeks, and the reform and adaptation measures should be intensified. So to find a way to compensate the court ruling on the pension reform of 2012 Greece. Even details such as the demand for a Sunday opening of shops can be found in the passage about the opening of product markets. In addition, the privatization of the Greek electricity grid operator Admie should be promoted.
The labor market reforms get a separate indent - there should Syriza as the campaign promises to abolish the controversial house collective agreements, withdraw. Overall, Greece should be orientated to best international and European practice. Even the financial sector to clean up and strengthen the government in Athens
In addition, and this is new, the euro finance ministers call for a whole range of other measures. For example, more privatizations : You can do this either on your own - or they have to implement the German proposal, state-owned bring trust fund worth 50 billion euros in a way to privatize. This proposal is in square brackets, an agreement did not exist in the Euro Group about so.
Until July 20, the Greek government should present a proposal (in consultation with the institutions), as she wants to strengthen and modernize the country's administration. Therein it should be a concern, as the administrative costs can be reduced.
The following passage reads quite as if the Troika back: The government in Athens is to be re-discussed and some of the necessary work for the implementation and monitoring of the various program components with the institutions. These include the vote on each of the relevant law before it is introduced into Parliament.
"Emphasizes the Euro Group, the implementation of the key question is, "it says in the paper. Ministers welcomed therefore "the intention of the Greek Government to ask the institutions and euro-zone countries to support until July 20".
All these points are therefore "minimum requirements" in order to begin negotiations. In plain English: This does not mean that is the end of the process really gives an ESM loan.
Schäuble Grexit plan in square brackets
In the third part deals with the financial requirements: The Euro Group "takes note" that the Greek financing needs for the next three years - and thus the scope of a new program - 82-86 billion euros is. That would be far more than previously thought.
The finance ministers call on the institutions but on to reduce this sum - through increased privatization receipts, for example, or savings elsewhere. An agreement must quickly ago, it said, because Greece need until July 20, seven billion euros until mid-August, another five billion euros, and the final installment of the IMF should be paid quickly.
Because of capital controls in the past two weeks another 10 to 25 billion Euros were needed to recapitalize the Greek banks.
On the subject of sovereign debt on the Euro Group writes: "There are serious concerns about the sustainability of Greek debt." For the relaxed measures the past twelve months were responsible.
In brackets - no consensus in the euro group so - follows a passage about a possible restructuring of Greek debt: As part of a possible ESM program, the Euro Group is willing "if necessary, to consider possible additional measures, Greece debt service to flatten further "- ie a stretch of repayments. But that would, according to the text only if all final measures were implemented and the Greek government with the institutions find a new regime. And: "The Euro Group emphasized that a haircut is not possible."
The last paragraph - also in square brackets - attacks the Schäuble plan from Grexit on time again. If no agreement is reached, it is said, should Greece swift negotiations on a break from the euro zone are offered, with a possible debt restructuring.
Greece signs up to a painful, humiliating agreement with Europe, The Economist 12/7/2015
July 12, 2015 4:38 pm 134 Comments
Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.
Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag "ThisIsACoup" is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.
Can anything pull Europe back from the brink? Word is that Mario Draghi is trying to reintroduce some sanity, that Hollande is finally showing a bit of the pushback against German morality-play economics that he so signally failed to supply in the past. But much of the damage has already been done. Who will ever trust Germany’s good intentions after this?
In a way, the economics have almost become secondary. But still, let’s be clear: what we’ve learned these past couple of weeks is that being a member of the eurozone means that the creditors can destroy your economy if you step out of line. This has no bearing at all on the underlying economics of austerity. It’s as true as ever that imposing harsh austerity without debt relief is a doomed policy no matter how willing the country is to accept suffering. And this in turn means that even a complete Greek capitulation would be a dead end.
Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)
The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it.
21:03Δευτέρα 13 Ιουλίου 2015
Πρόντι: Αποφεύχθηκαν τα χειρότερα αλλά όχι το κακό
«Η συμφωνία, όπως είχα προβλέψει επανειλημμένα, έφτασε. Αποφεύχθηκαν τα χειρότερα αλλά όχι το κακό», γράφει ο Ιταλός πρώην πρωθυπουργός και πρώην πρόεδρος της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής Ρομάνο Πρόντι στο διαδίκτυο, σχολιάζοντας την συμφωνία της χώρας μας με τους θεσμούς.
«Πρόκειται για το κακό που συνδέεται με μια Ελλάδα ταπεινωμένη και μια Ευρώπη η οποία δεν είναι άξια να αναλάβει πρωτοβουλίες, να δείξει ηγετική ικανότητα και αλληλεγγύη», προσθέτει ο κ. Πρόντι, σύμφωνα με τον οποίο «χάθηκαν χρόνια σε φαρισαϊκές διαπραγματεύσεις και αντιπαραθέσεις. Η Ελλάδα έχει καταστραφεί και η σημερινή Ευρώπη, αν δεν αλλάξει, δεν μπορεί να ετοιμάσει την Ευρώπη του αύριο».
23:39Κυριακή 12 Ιουλίου 2015
Κατάλογο με φρικαλεότητες χαρακτηρίζει το γερμανικό περιοδικό Der Spiegel τα μέτρα τα οποία ζητεί το Eurogroup να κάνει αποδεκτά η Ελλάδα, κάνοντας μάλιστα λόγο για «ηθελημένη ταπείνωση» της χώρας.
Proposals of the Euro Group: The catalog of atrocities
The Euro Group has written down what the Greeks have to do so that negotiations on a third program to be recorded. The demands go much further than anything previously an option. Premier Tsipras likely find it difficult to enforce the conditions in his Parliament.
A decision there in Brussels not yet - but for a position paper of the Euro Finance. \
It reads like a deliberate humiliation of Greece.
From Nicolai Kwasniewski, Brussels www.spiegel.de/ Sunday, 12/07/2015 - 20:38 clock
14 hours has discussed the Euro Group: What conditions must meet the Greek government to ensure that negotiations on a third aid program of 85 billion euros will be added? On the four sides the Euro Finance Ministers formulated their demands - the paper reads, as if to prevent an agreement at any price.
The paper is divided into three parts:
First measures are listed that must get passed already to next Wednesday in parliament, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, in order to restore confidence.
Second, it follows a series of demands, which must meet the Greek government before any negotiations on the applied to the euro rescue fund ESM billion program can be recorded.
In the third part of the Euro Finance lists the financial requirements on Greece for those three years, the program lasts. They also answer the question of how to deal with the debt of the country.
Basic requirement, it says right at the beginning, was the restoration of confidence in the Greek government. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should definitely stay at an ESM program on board. The first measures should therefore be already cast to 15 July in the form of laws.
These include the controversial reform of value added tax and the pension system . Furthermore, the judicial system must be reformed, the Greek statistics office Elstat completely independent and "relevant provisions" of the Stability and Growth Pact will be implemented the European Economic and Monetary Union. The European Banking Directive BRRD to adopt the Greek Parliament immediately.
These are the measures that the Greek Parliament of the Euro Group to view until July 15, has to adopt - mind you: once only to produce lost confidence again.
The Greek Government shall then also address the following points until July 20 before negotiations start: Because the economy has slumped again in recent weeks, and the reform and adaptation measures should be intensified. So to find a way to compensate the court ruling on the pension reform of 2012 Greece. Even details such as the demand for a Sunday opening of shops can be found in the passage about the opening of product markets. In addition, the privatization of the Greek electricity grid operator Admie should be promoted.
The labor market reforms get a separate indent - there should Syriza as the campaign promises to abolish the controversial house collective agreements, withdraw. Overall, Greece should be orientated to best international and European practice. Even the financial sector to clean up and strengthen the government in Athens
In addition, and this is new, the euro finance ministers call for a whole range of other measures. For example, more privatizations : You can do this either on your own - or they have to implement the German proposal, state-owned bring trust fund worth 50 billion euros in a way to privatize. This proposal is in square brackets, an agreement did not exist in the Euro Group about so.
Until July 20, the Greek government should present a proposal (in consultation with the institutions), as she wants to strengthen and modernize the country's administration. Therein it should be a concern, as the administrative costs can be reduced.
The following passage reads quite as if the Troika back: The government in Athens is to be re-discussed and some of the necessary work for the implementation and monitoring of the various program components with the institutions. These include the vote on each of the relevant law before it is introduced into Parliament.
"Emphasizes the Euro Group, the implementation of the key question is, "it says in the paper. Ministers welcomed therefore "the intention of the Greek Government to ask the institutions and euro-zone countries to support until July 20".
All these points are therefore "minimum requirements" in order to begin negotiations. In plain English: This does not mean that is the end of the process really gives an ESM loan.
Schäuble Grexit plan in square brackets
In the third part deals with the financial requirements: The Euro Group "takes note" that the Greek financing needs for the next three years - and thus the scope of a new program - 82-86 billion euros is. That would be far more than previously thought.
The finance ministers call on the institutions but on to reduce this sum - through increased privatization receipts, for example, or savings elsewhere. An agreement must quickly ago, it said, because Greece need until July 20, seven billion euros until mid-August, another five billion euros, and the final installment of the IMF should be paid quickly.
Because of capital controls in the past two weeks another 10 to 25 billion Euros were needed to recapitalize the Greek banks.
On the subject of sovereign debt on the Euro Group writes: "There are serious concerns about the sustainability of Greek debt." For the relaxed measures the past twelve months were responsible.
In brackets - no consensus in the euro group so - follows a passage about a possible restructuring of Greek debt: As part of a possible ESM program, the Euro Group is willing "if necessary, to consider possible additional measures, Greece debt service to flatten further "- ie a stretch of repayments. But that would, according to the text only if all final measures were implemented and the Greek government with the institutions find a new regime. And: "The Euro Group emphasized that a haircut is not possible."
The last paragraph - also in square brackets - attacks the Schäuble plan from Grexit on time again. If no agreement is reached, it is said, should Greece swift negotiations on a break from the euro zone are offered, with a possible debt restructuring.
Greece signs up to a painful, humiliating agreement with Europe, The Economist 12/7/2015
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